Oscars 2017: Prediction and analysis

Oscar nominations were announced on Jan. 24, which included milestones and few surprises. “La La Land,” this year’s front-runner and Golden Globe favorite, received a record-tying 14 nominations. “Arrival” and “Moonlight” scored eight nominations each, followed by “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Lion,” and “Manchester by the Sea” with six nominations each. The nominations were also the most diverse the Academy has seen in over a decade, following two straight years of #OscarsSoWhite protests.

Having watched most of the nominated films and every awards ceremony since we could remember, we break down six of the major categories. The ceremony airs Feb. 26, and anything could happen. Let the race begin.

Best Picture

Taking a turn from recent years, four of the nine nominated films highlight diversity. One of these films is “Moonlight.” The story follows the life of Chiron, who faces abuse, finds love and searches for acceptance as a gay black man in Miami. “Moonlight” powerfully shows audiences of a life typically unseen in cinema. This year’s front-runner is “La La Land,” a dazzling neo-musical that follows an actress and a jazz pianist as they fall in love while trying to achieve their dreams in Los Angeles. Original songs, ambitious direction, and an ending that sticks the landing makes “La La Land” this year’s most exciting movie.

Should win: “La La Land” or “Moonlight”

Will win: “La La Land”

Lead Actor

This years’ Best Lead Actor category features those playing characters from a variety of backgrounds. From the intensity of Andrew Garfield as Desmond T. Doss in “Hacksaw Ridge,” to Casey Affleck as an introverted uncle caring for his recently orphaned nephew  (“Manchester by the Sea”).

Should win: Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”)

Will win: Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”)

Lead Actress

The race between best actress will be a close one, with established names like Meryl Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”) and Natalie Portman (“Jackie”) taking the stage alongside the show-stopping performance of Emma Stone (“La La Land”). Portman portrays Jackie Kennedy in the moments before, during, and after her husband’s assassination. Streep stars as the 1920s heiress Florence Foster Jenkins, who aspires to be a singer but has little ability. Stone plays Mia Dolan, an actress trying to make her way to the top in Los Angeles, and truly makes one of her strongest characters she has ever portrayed her own.

Should win: Emma Stone (“La La Land”)

Will win: Emma Stone (“La La Land”)

Best Director

Following his Oscar-winning film “Whiplash,” Damien Chazelle is back with “La La Land,” a film with many intricate set pieces, long-takes and fast-paced choreography. Watching his direction feels like a high-wire act which could derail at any minute, but never does. Also a strong contender is Barry Jenkins for “Moonlight,” his first feature film in eight years. Jenkins got some of the strongest performances of the year out of his actors, many of whom were relatively unknown.

Should win: Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”) or Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”)

Will win: Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”)

Original Screenplay

A movie is nothing without clever writing. This year, front-runners include “Manchester by the Sea” written by Kenneth Lonergan. This tells the story of a janitor who is forced to take care of his nephew after a family tragedy. In just two hours, the script provides enough details to produce well-rounded characters that the audience can connect with. “La La Land,” seen as an equal front-runner in the category, conveys emotion, laughs and bursts with creativity. But one shouldn’t count out “The Lobster,” a dark horse candidate. The story is so original and surreal that it leaves viewers scratching their heads long after the movie is over.

Should win: “La La Land”

Will win: “Manchester by the Sea”

Original Score

Being a musical-comedy filled with both a jazzy original score and quirky lyrics make “La La Land” (Justin Hurwitz) a strong contender for winning Best Original Score. Other notable scores include “Moonlight” by Nicholas Britell and “Lion” by Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka, all first-time Oscar nominees. While beautifully composed, they lack the memorability that Justin Hurwitz’ score immediately brings.

Should win: Justin Hurwitz (“La La Land”)

Will win: Justin Hurwitz (“La La Land”)